Must pig and chicken prices rise and fall together?Take you to explore the cycle behind chicken prices and pig prices

2022-05-04 0 By

In the year of tiger, I wish my friends a happy year of tiger.I wonder if you have noticed recently that the price of chicken has increased significantly as Chinese New Year approaches.I don’t know if you have noticed that since the year before last, the price of pork has been falling all the way and still hasn’t recovered. Do you know what kind of cycle rules are behind the price of pork and chicken?The following author tries to bring you together to discuss.One, chicken and rabbit with cage, chicken and pig with pen?When I was a child we had done a classic topic called “chicken and rabbit with cage”, this topic comes from “sun Tzu calculate classics”, the book is narrated like this: today there are pheasant rabbit with cage, there are 35 heads on the top, there are 94 feet below, ask pheasant rabbit each geometry?(There are many chickens and rabbits in a cage, counting from the top, there are 35 heads, counting from the bottom, there are 94 feet, how many chickens and rabbits?)In the subdivision field of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry, the author jokingly called the price connection between pork and chicken “chicken and pig together” problem, trying to explore what is the connection between chicken cycle and pig cycle?Second, chicken and pork are substitutes for each other, and in theory the price of both will rise as well as fall.Theoretically, pork is a substitute for chicken, and both of them are meat. When the chicken price rises, some rational consumers will choose to buy pork instead of eating chicken, which will restrain the rise of chicken price.Similarly, when pork prices rise, it has a similar effect.Third, there is very little data on the chicken cycle revaluation in the recent 10 years in the market, but there is a lot of data on the pig cycle revaluation. For the pig cycle, it is generally believed in the market that since 2006, the third round and the fourth round of pig cycle are in two stages of “2014-2018” and “2018-present” respectively.In this regard, the author tried to frame the interval of pig cycle in the trend of chicken price in the past 8 years, in an attempt to study the rule of the trend of chicken price and pig price, but found that the two are not completely synchronous and have the following characteristics:In 2019, when pig prices went crazy, chicken prices also rose to an all-time high. When pig prices started a relatively large increase, chicken prices also followed.This shows the substitution effect behind pork and chicken.There is also a big difference between the pig cycle and the chicken cycle, which is reflected in the following aspects: in the small cycle, the pig cycle and the chicken cycle are not completely synchronized, and the number of the chicken small cycle is more than the pig cycle, and the fluctuation frequency is greater than the pig cycle.The author thinks that this may be related to the length of the breeding period of pig and chicken. We know that the breeding period of piglet is 6 months, while the breeding period of white-feathered chicken is 42 days, and the breeding period of yellow-feathered chicken is 3 months.Chickens are significantly faster than pigs in terms of reaction speed, and the cost of raising chickens is lower, so farmers can react more quickly and join the breeding team when chicken prices rise, which may be the main reason why the chicken industry has more frequent mini-cycles.The pig and chicken industries have different levels of industry concentration, leading to differences in the time and magnitude of response to cycles.According to public data, most pig farmers in China are small and medium-sized farmers, and the market share CR10 of large-scale pig farms with more than 500 pigs per year is only about 8% (about 40% in the United States).The chicken industry has reached 40% CR10 in 2019 (more than 70% in mature MARKETS in the US).As the proportion of the top ten of the industry is significantly higher than that of the chicken industry, the leaders of related industries can react to the chicken cycle more quickly, and even carry out “counter-cyclical operation” in the downtrend of the industry, which may be another important reason for the smaller amplitude and shorter interval of the chicken cycle.Above, is it enlightening to you?Data source: Xinmu network;Open information.