Pig prices are down again!Before the pig city “life on the line”, after the controversy is greater
Original production, plagiarism is prohibited, offenders will be prosecuted.Last year’s pig market experienced a magical year, but this year is still not calm, there are currently “3 strange” : one is the sudden rise and fall.Last year, the pig price fluctuated all the time, but showed an obvious curve fluctuation. However, since this year, it has fluctuated suddenly, with frequent fluctuations and a large range.Second, the peak season is not prosperous.Consumption stocking up before the lunar New Year usually begins with the lunar New Year, when traditionally the “lunar New Year rush” begins. However, after rising for a few days before the Lunar New Year, pig prices enter a downward mode after the Lunar New Year.Third, part of the self-breeding households loss, and part of the fattening households profit instead.Why does this happen?It can only mean one thing, that last year’s pig price movements were generally influenced by supply and demand, and this year there are more factors involved and therefore more complex.One, pig price “life hanging by a thread” the market for pigs and corn trend view is completely opposite, corn from bearish to bearish sentiment narrowing, and finally to have a part of the bullish mood, and pig prices from the Spring Festival bullish, to rise narrow, to now directly have a bearish mood.At present, the Chinese New Year is getting closer and closer, but the pig price is still falling, the year before the trend is very slim, almost “life hanging by a thread”, and what is this line?It’s the consumption before the year.But for now, there is a high probability that consumption will fall short of expectations before the end of the year.On the one hand, due to the epidemic, the flow of passengers returning home has decreased significantly. Many children who work outside the home do not go back home, and the stock of goods at home for the Festival will be greatly reduced.That may be one reason why consumption has been slow to pick up, with meat prices now in the single digits.Restaurant spending, on the other hand, remains low.Food consumption in China’s consumption is larger, especially like Chinese New Year dinner, but according to statistics, according to data released in November last year 1 ~ domestic food and beverage consumption growth of 21.6% year-on-year, but two years the average growth rate of 0.5%, indicating that the current food consumption is still in a low, still not back to the state before the outbreak.In addition, the spread of the epidemic has further restrained food consumption.Therefore, before the pig price is like a tightrope walking, all tied to the consumption of this line.Two, two trends need to pay attention to 1, regional differentiation.Due to the spread of the epidemic, different prevention and control policies, different impacts on consumption, and different market conditions, pig prices are likely to show a state of regional differentiation, that is, some regions rise, some regions fall.This can also be seen from the recent fluctuations in pig prices, which are basically showing mixed situation in different regions.It is worth noting that southwest China is weak, while east China, central China and other regions are relatively strong.2, the pressure is moving backwards.The market generally thinks, pig price drops ceaselessly, basically be supply and demand both ends together pressure is caused.On the one hand, it is the backward movement of supply pressure, and on the other hand, it is the advance overdraft of consumption, both wrong peak caused the peak season of pig price is not flourishing.In addition, the market presents an obvious supply pressure back to the situation.According to the data, the number of piglets born has increased significantly since July last year, which corresponds to a significant increase in the number of pigs sold in January this year, and may continue until March.At this time, the consumption of the whole year is off season, so after the year can not rule out the phenomenon of pig prices fell too quickly.The inflection point of the pig cycle is still controversial.One point of view is that due to the low peak season lead to pig price grinding time will advance, so the inflection point will also advance, may be expected to usher in the inflection point in the second quarter.However, most views are still pessimistic. They believe that although the pig price falls, the production capacity will not be cleared quickly, and there will be a long period of selling at a low price. Therefore, the pig market will not reach the turning point until the fourth quarter or even next year at the earliest.What do you think?When does the inflection point come?