“Qian Long Day list” 2022.02.18 trading panorama resume
High market sentiment does not include ST and listed new shares, the two cities trading limit 49, down limit 1, even 10 board, trading height 5 days 5 board.Hot market brief comment on data center:Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, the central net letter office, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Energy Administration jointly issued by the notice, agreed to in beijing-tianjin-hebei, Yangtze river delta, a large bay area of guangdong, chongqing, guizhou, gansu, ningxia, Inner Mongolia, etc. 8 to start building the state is hub node (hereinafter referred to as the “hub”), and planning the ten national data center cluster.According to the 14th Five-year Digital Economy Development Plan issued by The State Council, the value added of the core industries of the digital economy should account for 10% of GDP by 2025.The so-called “numeracy in the East and numeracy in the West” means that the growing demand for computing power in the east is put into the western region to store, transmit and calculate data, which is conducive to the economic growth and intensive development of the data industry in the western region.On the one hand, the demand for data processing is exploding, and the importance of computing power is becoming increasingly prominent.”Up to now, China’s data centers have reached 5 million standard racks and 130EFLOPS (1.3 trillion floating point operations per second) of computing power,” said an official with the high technology department of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on February 17.With the continuous penetration of digital technology into all fields of economy and society, the whole society still has an urgent demand for computing power, which is expected to continue to grow at a speed of more than 20% every year.Accelerating the construction of computing power will accelerate the process of digital industrialization and industrial digitization.”Most of China’s data centers are distributed in the eastern region. Due to the increasing shortage of land, energy and other resources, large-scale development of data centers in the eastern region is difficult to sustain.However, China’s western region is rich in resources, especially renewable energy, and has the potential to develop data centers and meet the needs of eastern computing power.To this end, we should give full play to the advantages of China’s system and mechanism, integrate the layout from a national perspective, optimize the allocation of resources and improve the efficiency of resource use.Some authoritative institutions and experts estimate that the annual investment volume of the project will reach hundreds of billions of yuan, and its driving effect on related industries will reach 1:8.The comprehensive construction of the project will not only help stabilize growth and revitalize the industrial economy this year, but also contribute to the high-quality development of China’s economy in the future.Guojin Securities believes that relevant policies have laid the main tone of encouraging the healthy development of IDC industry in the four sectors.Up to now, China’s computing power has reached 130 EFLOPS (13,000petaflops).As the penetration rate of digital economy increases, computing power has become an important infrastructure for national economic development.In the future, more traditional enterprises will go to the cloud, and the cloud computing industry chain as the base of the digital economy will continue to have a high boom. It is expected that the overall growth rate of the industry will be more than 20%.Coal: since the beginning of the year, coal prices continue to rise, the fundamentals have the basis for growth.Since the beginning of 2022, qinhuangdao (Q5500) spot coal (produced in Shanxi) has increased from 790 yuan/ton at the beginning of January to 1070 yuan/ton at the end of January. This wave of coal price rise is based on the rapid decline of port coal price and inverted pit coal price. Traders are less enthusiastic about pulling coal to the port, and port inventory remains low.The mood was boosted by Indonesia’s announcement of restrictions on coal exports;The direct impetus lies in the growth of strong electricity consumption and the demand brought by power plant replenishment. With the policy of steady economic growth, the demand will be stronger and form an effective support for coal prices.The Development and Reform Commission to consolidate the supply of stable price results, coal prices will run at the upper limit of a reasonable range.Recently, industrial enterprises in Southern China started operation one after another. Combined with the impact of continuous rain and snow weather, the daily consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces rose to 1.5 million tons. Although the inventory declined, it still remained at a high level of over 30 million tons, which could support the coal demand in the short term.After the fifteenth day of the first month, if the production area to release faster, coal prices will continue to fall, cost support weakened, port coal prices will also go down.With the end of the Winter Olympics, the power consumption of industrial enterprises will recover, the daily consumption of coastal power plants will recover to normal level, or accelerate the purchasing pace, and the demand for coal market will rebound.On February 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly held a meeting, stressing that coal enterprises should promptly resume normal production and supply, strictly implement the policy requirements of ensuring supply and price stability, standardize price behavior, and promote the stable operation of coal prices within a reasonable range.The agency believes that the rise of coal price may be suspended, but there is no risk of a short-term rapid decline. The main reasons are as follows: 1) The cold spring and steady economic growth will increase the demand for coal and electricity;2) Indonesia’s benchmark coal price was raised to $188.4 / ton in February, which means that the domestic (Q5500) arrival cost price has exceeded 1237 yuan/ton, higher than the domestic coal price, and there is no increase in imported coal supply;3) After the heating season, guaranteed supply capacity represented by illegal production increase, high cost and temporary nuclear increase will be withdrawn one after another.In February 2022, qinhuangdao thermal coal Q5500 long price is 725 yuan/ton, under the new mechanism, high long price can be maintained and significantly improved year-on-year, capital expenditure – cash flow – finance – profit – dividend will appear sustainable optimization, as the coal enterprises will be in March 2022 after the annual report will be disclosed,High long association, high profits under the new dividend scheme is worth looking forward to.In addition, the state encourages the construction of photovoltaic projects to control coal mining subsidence areas, some coal enterprises will use local resources to obtain green electricity projects, the transformation is expected to accelerate.